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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Southwest Airlines (LUV) rising on a UBS upgrade. The upgrade cites specific initiatives: extra legroom and assigned seating. These structural changes align LUV with industry standards, potentially unlocking higher-margin revenue tiers. LONG. Execution of new seating model alienates core customer base. |
Bloomberg Markets
Apple Ramps Up Wearables for AI Era | Bloombe...
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Feb 17, 2026
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WATCH
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Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) agreed to reopen negotiations with Paramount (PARA) regarding a merger/acquisition. Renewed M&A talks suggest consolidation is inevitable in the media sector to compete with Netflix. This puts a floor under the stock prices due to deal speculation. WATCH (M&A Arbitrage). Regulatory antitrust blocking; deal falls through again. |
Bloomberg Markets
Apple Ramps Up Wearables for AI Era | Bloombe...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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Activist investor Elliott Management has built a >10% stake in Norwegian Cruise Line and sent a letter urging changes to unlock "150% upside." Activist involvement of this magnitude typically forces management to cut costs, buy back shares, or seek a sale, creating an immediate catalyst for price appreciation. LONG (Event-Driven). Management successfully fights off the activist; consumer travel spending rolls over. |
Bloomberg Markets
Apple Ramps Up Wearables for AI Era | Bloombe...
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Feb 11, 2026
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SHORT
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All four companies reported earnings misses or poor guidance. HOOD (crypto decline), MAT (worst day since 1999), Z (legal costs), LYFT (revenue miss). These are idiosyncratic failures in a generally decent macro environment. The specific headwinds (crypto winter for HOOD, legal structural issues for Z, legacy liabilities for LYFT) are not easily fixed in one quarter. SHORT. Momentum is broken, and overhead supply from trapped longs will cap rallies. Oversold bounce; potential M&A targets (specifically Z or LYFT). |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130K Jobs, Sec. Wright Visits Venezue...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Ford shares are rising after forecasting a profit jump in 2026 despite a $900 million tariff bill. They are launching $40k EVs by 2027. The market feared tariffs would crush auto margins. Ford's guidance proves they have pricing power or cost efficiencies to absorb trade war costs, separating them from more vulnerable auto peers. LONG. Relative strength against a backdrop of trade uncertainty. USMCA withdrawal (extreme scenario) could disrupt supply chains beyond current tariff expectations. |
Bloomberg Markets
US Adds 130K Jobs, Sec. Wright Visits Venezue...
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Feb 11, 2026
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AVOID
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Robinhood reported lower Q4 profit, weighing on results. In a bull market with high retail engagement, a profit miss suggests structural cost or monetization issues rather than just cyclical headwinds. AVOID. Unexpected crypto rally driving transaction volume. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kraft Heinz Pauses Split, Paramount Sweetens ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Micron CEO stated that memory supply is likely to remain tight beyond 2026. Extended supply tightness in a commodity market (memory chips) guarantees pricing power and margin expansion for the producers. LONG. Sudden drop in consumer electronics demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Kraft Heinz Pauses Split, Paramount Sweetens ...
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